Six teams, Five spots

The final round of the 2023 Blood Toyota GFNL season is shaping up to be an intriguing weekend of football, as six teams remain in the hunt for the five spots in finals.

Though a couple of teams are a certainty to play in the finals, the league standings could drastically transform over the course of weekend depending on some results.

These are some of the possibilities that could eventuate.

SOUTH BARWON vs COLAC

If South Barwon win:
-They are in the finals.
-They will have denied Colac their chance at top spot, provided St Mary’s do not lose to Bell Park by 100+ points.
- All results and possibilities considered, the highest they could finish is third spot and the lowest they could finish is fourth spot, so in the first week of finals they would play either Colac or St Mary’s in a qualifying final or Leopold, Newtown & Chilwell, or St Joseph’s in an elimination final.

If Colac win
-They would remain in the hunt for top spot, provided they win by a great amount and St Mary’s are considerably beaten by Bell Park or do not beat Bell Park by much.
-If they were to beat South Barwon by a sizeable margin, they would put South Barwon at a very slight risk of missing the finals if St Joseph’s were to beat Geelong West by 100+ points and Newtown & Chilwell beat Leopold by 100+ points .
-They cannot drop out of the top two no matter the result, so their worst case would be playing either Leopold, Newtown & Chilwell or South Barwon again in a qualifier in week one of the finals, and their best case would be a week off and then playing the winner of the first qualifying final for a place in the Grand Final.

LEOPOLD vs NEWTOWN & CHILWELL

If Leopold win:
-They would lock in finals.
-They could finish as high as third if South Barwon lose to Colac.
-The lowest they can finish is fourth, meaning they would most likely play Newtown & Chilwell next Saturday in an elimination final.

If Newtown & Chilwell win:
-They would be in finals.
-If they were to beat Leopold by 100+ points, that would put Leopold at a minor risk of missing finals if St Joseph’s were to beat Geelong West by 100+ points.
-They could finish third if South Barwon loses to or does not beat Colac by a large amount. If South Barwon were to beat Colac convincingly, Newtown & Chilwell could end up finishing fourth and, in that case, would very likely play Leopold next week in a sudden-death final.

BELL PARK vs ST MARY’S

If Bell Park win:
-They would end their season on a high having knocked off one of the competition’s stronger outfits.
-The highest they could finish is seventh, dependent on Geelong West losing to St Joseph’s.

If St Mary’s win:
-They would all but lock away top spot if Colac loses to South Barwon. If they were to beat Bell Park by a large sum, their percentage and position will be unassailable. However, if Colac beats South Barwon comprehensively and St Mary’s do not beat Bell Park by a large sum, then the minor premiership could be up for grabs.
-They cannot drop out of the top two, so if they finish first, they would have a week off and then play in the second qualifying final for a Grand Final spot, and if they finish second they would play Leopold, Newtown & Chilwell, or South Barwon in the first qualifying final.

GEELONG WEST vs ST JOSEPH’S

If Geelong West win:
-They would end St Joseph’s season.
-They would finish their season seventh on the ladder even if Bell Park were to beat St Mary’s.

If St Joseph’s win:
-Their season would still be alive.
-To make the finals, they would need to beat Geelong West by 100+ points and they would also need Newtown & Chilwell to beat Leopold by a similar amount.
-If they did manage to make finals, they would most likely play either Newtown & Chilwell or South Barwon in an elimination final.

Author: Joseph Vasquez (AFL Barwon Work Experience Student)